【学术讲座】牛鞭效应与股票收益

 The Bullwhip Effect and Stock Returns

Guest Speaker: Prof. Vinod Singhal (Scheller College of Business, Georgia Institute of Technology)

Time/Date:   10 AM, Monday 29^th, April. 2024

Classroom:    Room402, Tongji Building A

ABSTRACT | 讲座摘要

The bullwhip effect (BWE) is an important phenomenon in the operations and supply chain management field. Although it is commonly accepted that the BWE is widespread and can have a significant adverse impact on financial performance, there is surprisingly limited objective evidence on the financial consequences of the BWE. This paper examines the impact of the BWE on financial performance by examining the relationship between the BWE and stock price performance. The empirical analysis is based on data from 1985 to 2018 from about 7,200 publicly traded firms and about 64,000 firm-years. We find that most results on the impact of the BWE on stock returns are statistically indistinguishable from zero. The few marginally significant results that we find suggest a positive relationship between the BWE and stock returns rather than the expected negative relationship. However, these marginally significant results do not hold when alternate methods are used to test the relationships. These conclusions are robust when we segment the sample by size, industry, and time periods. We also do not find a significant relationship between the BWE and stock returns for samples based on the propagation of the BWE from customers to suppliers. We do find some evidence to suggest that the BWE has a negative impact on inventory turnover. However, we do not find similar evidence for capacity utilization. The relationships between the BWE and return on assets measures are statistically insignificant. For margin measures, the relationships are positive and statistically significant but not economically significant.

GUEST BIO | 讲者介绍

Vinod Singhal is the Charles W. Brady Chair Professor of Operations Management at the Scheller College of Business at Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA. He has a Ph.D. from University of Rochester, Rochester, USA. Prior to joining Georgia Tech., he worked as a Senior Research Scientist at General Motors Research Labs.

Vinod’s research has focused on the impact of operating decisions on accounting and stock market-based performance measures. His research has been supported through grants from the US Department of Labor, National Science Foundation, the American Society of Quality, and the Sloan Foundation. He has published extensively in academic journals and has made more than 200 presentations at different universities. His research has been recognized in the practitioner community through his many articles in industry-practitioner journals and frequent invited presentations as keynote speaker at practitioner conferences. His work has been cited well over 200 times in practitioner publications such as Business Week, The Economist, Fortune, Smart Money, CFO Europe, Financial Times, Investor’s Business Daily, and DailyTelegraph.  His research has been extensively cited in academic publications, with over 14,000 citations.

Vinod is a Departmental Editor of Production and Operations Management, and Associate Editor of Journal of Operations Management, and Management Science. He is on the Academic Advisory Board of the European School of Management and Technology, Germany.

Vinod’s teaching interests include operations strategy and supply chain management. He has contributed to teaching at an international level, as well, by offering research workshops in countries including Australia, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom.