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【学术研讨】与美国佐治亚理工Vinod Singhal教授面对面
发布时间：2024-04-17
SEMINAR 10 AM @ Room 402, Building A
Guest Speaker: Prof. Vinod Singhal
The Bullwhip Effect and Stock Returns
ABSTRACT:
The bullwhip effect (BWE) is an important phenomenon in the operations and supply chain management field. Although it is commonly accepted that the BWE is widespread and can have a significant adverse impact on financial performance, there is surprisingly limited objective evidence on the financial consequences of the BWE. This paper examines the impact of the BWE on financial performance by examining the relationship between the BWE and stock price performance. The empirical analysis is based on data from 1985 to 2018 from about 7,200 publicly traded firms and about 64,000 firm-years. We find that most results on the impact of the BWE on stock returns are statistically indistinguishable from zero. The few marginally significant results that we find suggest a positive relationship between the BWE and stock returns rather than the expected negative relationship. However, these marginally significant results do not hold when alternate methods are used to test the relationships. These conclusions are robust when we segment the sample by size, industry, and time periods. We also do not find a significant relationship between the BWE and stock returns for samples based on the propagation of the BWE from customers to suppliers. We do find some evidence to suggest that the BWE has a negative impact on inventory turnover. However, we do not find similar evidence for capacity utilization. The relationships between the BWE and return on assets measures are statistically insignificant. For margin measures, the relationships are positive and statistically significant but not economically significant.
WOKESHOP 2 PM @ Room 2101, Building A
Invited Discussant: Prof. Vinod Singhal
Presentation 1 | The effect of implementing human-AI collaboration on stock returns
Speaker: Yuqing LU, Ph.D. Candidate
Presentation 2 | Peer Spatial Autocorrelation and Restaurant Survival in the Online Marketplace: Insights from Dianping Data
Speaker: Jiaxin LIN, Ph.D. Candidate
This study investigates the enduring influence of peer spatial autocorrelation on restaurant survival within the online marketplace. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of over 500,000 primary restaurant records sourced from Dianping spanning 2020 to 2023 across pivotal urban centers, including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, we uncover the presence of spatial autocorrelation in ratings and its profound impact on restaurant viability. Our analysis demonstrates that alignment in ratings among neighboring establishments strengthens the survival prospects of core restaurants, while rating disparities pose significant challenges to their sustainability. High-rated restaurants tend to benefit from a “network effect” within their surroundings to foster their survival whereas low-rated counterparts encounter a “competitive effect”. Furthermore, we examine various distance scales (ranging from 200m to 2000m) and rating dimensions (taste, ambiance, service), while accounting for agglomeration based on cuisine and price range. Our findings provide novel perspectives for analyzing market thickness and offer nuanced insights into the dynamics of operational considerations in the online marketplace.
Presentation 3 | Revisiting Metaverse Mania: Who are the Biggest Winners in the Chinese Metaverse Stock Market?—An Empirical Research Utilizing Event Study Methodology
Speaker: Weichen LI, Ph.D. Candidate
On October 28, 2021, Facebook announced its name change to Meta and unveiled plans to develop the metaverse. These initiatives sparked a worldwide frenzy surrounding the metaverse. Numerous companies have entered the metaverse space, and the market has shown unprecedented interest in it. However, did these initiatives by listed firms actually increase their value? Was the stock market's positive attitude towards the metaverse sustainable? What factors influenced the market's response to listed firms entering the metaverse industry? Should firms enter the metaverse industry, and if so, how should they do it? This study started from these practical issues and incorporated insights and limitations from previously related studies. Firstly, a clear definition of metaverse events was provided, drawing on the project life cycle theory. Secondly, the study proposed the EV+TOE (Event-Technology-Organization-Environment) framework, which is based on the TOE (Technology-Organization-Environment) framework and event system theory. Subsequently, the study summarized the potential moderators influencing market reaction following the disclosure of metaverse events and developed a contextualized EV+TOE research model with accompanying hypotheses. Finally, the study employed event study methodology and regression analysis to investigate the primary effect and moderating mechanism. The research sample consisted of 431 metaverse events involving listed firms on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) in China, spanning from August 3, 2021, to April 6, 2023. The results demonstrated that metaverse disclosures yielded significant positive abnormal returns, and the positive market reaction exhibited no significant reversal trend within 20 trading days following the disclosure. Further analysis revealed that metaverse disclosures characterized by inexplicitness and earlier timing, as well as smaller, younger firms operating in non-ICT (Information and Communications Technology) industries, and SZSE-listed firms, experienced higher abnormal returns. The relative timing of disclosure, event type, and firm size emerged as the three most critical moderators. In terms of theoretical contributions, this study conducted a review of previous event studies in the Information System (IS) field and introduced the EV+TOE framework, which holds value for future investigations into the moderating mechanisms of event studies. In terms of practical contributions, this article examined the present state of the Chinese metaverse industry using empirical findings and put forth recommendations for future advancement.
Presentation 4 | Should Firms Settle Litigation Privately or Take Them to Court?
Speaker: Shuang Xia, Ph.D. Candidate
In the context of escalating commercial litigations and their profound impact on corporate governance and market perception, this study examines the short-term and long-term effects of litigation on corporations through an analysis of contract dispute data involving Chinese publicly listed companies from 2013 to 2022. First and foremost, it is generally observed that litigation has a significant negative impact on corporate stock prices. By employing event study methodology, we investigate the differential impact of the three stages of litigation—filing, trial, and judgment—on corporate stock prices. Our findings indicate that as the amount at stake in disputes increases, stakeholders react more significantly in the earlier stages of litigation. Additionally, the role of the corporation in the dispute (whether as plaintiff or defendant) and the duration of the case significantly influence the abnormal return rates. Moreover, we explore the repercussions of litigation on long-term corporate performance, finding that a higher frequency of disputes correlates negatively with corporate performance. This research underscores the importance of strategic decision-making in choosing between private settlement and court proceedings, taking into account the immediate financial consequences and the enduring effects on corporate reputation and performance.
